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Is the prospect of a new energy vehicle that has lost its policy support still bright?

Published in 2017-06-14

At present, new energy vehicles and self-driving cars have become the research and layout direction of major car companies. Under the state financial subsidies, many new technology companies have sprung up and look forward to creating the next tesla the miracle.At present, there are more than 30 new energy vehicle projects under construction across the country, and more than 170 new energy vehicle manufacturers.According to the projects approved this year and production capacity planning released by various major automobile companies, by 2020, the production capacity of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million, and the development of new energy vehicles in China has entered a high-speed growth period.

▲ new energy car concept map

According to the data of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 38,000 units in May 2017, up 30% month-on-month and 45% year-on-year. The China Automobile Association said that the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 500,000 units last year, and this year it will be able to achieve sales targets of 700,000 units.

At present, China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of new energy vehicles. At present, it has promoted more than 1 million new energy vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of the global market.Behind these huge growths is the strong drive of policies that we cannot ignore: the purchase tax paid by residents for new energy vehicles is halved; the government subsidizes the enterprises that develop new energy; the government gives new energy vehicles a shake-free, no Great policies such as limit lines are good.

Relatively speaking, the car purchase restriction adopted by many places has stimulated the purchase of new energy vehicles. Data show that in 2015, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the restricted purchase area accounted for 58% of the national sales, and in 2016 it rose to 60%.

According to the data released by the Small Bus Indicators Office, the third phase of the passenger car index will be carried out on June 26th. According to the regulations, the application for the new energy passenger car index will be applied to the individual demonstration of the qualification review, and will be directly configured according to the application time sequence index.As of 24:00 on June 8th, a total of 28,939 applications and extensions for personal demonstration and application of new energy bus allocation indicators have been received, and 2,485 enterprises and institutions applied for demonstration and application of 3,857 new energy passenger car configuration indicators.According to the analysis of previous data,the personal new energy vehicle index application approval rate is 89% to 95%, and the number of individuals applying for new energy vehicle indicators and confirming the extension is close to 29,000.

▲ new energy car being charged

Despite the help of policies, the new energy vehicle market is still highly dependent on subsidies, and changes in policies directly affect the production and sales of new energy vehicles.According to the January 2017 data, the overall sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles was only 5,423 units, down 61% year-on-year and down 87% month-on-month. “Subsidy retreat” and “directory reaffirmation” are the most important factors leading to the plunge in the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

From the “2016-2020 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Financial Support Policy” issued by the state, in 2017-2018, the subsidy standard will decrease by 20% on the basis of 2016. In 2019 to 2020, the subsidy standard will decrease by 40% on the basis of 2016. That is to say, the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2017 is based on 2016, and it has fallen 20% in 2016 standards. At the same time, the specific policy measures introduced this year include local financial subsidies more than 50% of the central government bicycle subsidy.

There is such a story, Lao Liu’s car has been used for eight years and he wants to change a new car.The sales staff of the 4S shop told him that the new energy vehicles enjoy national and local policy subsidies, and they can offer a lot of discounts. Lao Liu took a fancy to a new energy vehicle with a price of 240,000 yuan. The national and regional policies subsidized 80,000, but the 4S shop said that is no existing car at that time , it will take about 3 months.However, New Year  after one month. The national and regional subsidies will inevitably decrease. Do you consider the existing vehicles in the store? Lao Liu refused, so he paid a deposit of 5,000 yuan. After three months, he came to the 4S store. Sure enough, the subsidy changed from 80,000 to 60,000. At the same time of buying a new car, Lao Liu is also distressed. After all, 20,000 yuan is the cost of several months for an ordinary family.

▲ Tesla Model S

In this way, the government subsidies as a whole "low tide", car companies directly enter the market to fight, what will their future go from?

Is the pursuit of technological innovation and become the next "Tesla"?

Some companies have begun to introduce "Internet +" for intelligent interconnection, or to independently develop core technologies.For example, Geely Group deploys a car networking system on a pure electric light truck, and checks the vehicle full load rate through a mobile phone to reduce the transportation cost and the return rate;Some companies focus on developing specific types of vehicles.For example, Xinzhutong will focus on the development of pure electric city logistics vehicles, pure electric fast charging city buses, plug-in hybrid city buses and other vehicles. In October this year, it will also target the new energy airport shuttle bus field;

Or seek business partners, share benefits, and advance and retreat together?

Cooperation with logistics, cooperation with airports, cooperation with bus taxi companies, and cooperation with shared vehicles are all feasible methods. After all, new energy vehicles are currently charging longer, battery life needs to be improved, and it is difficult to replace fuel vehicles to meet the long-distance travel needs of people hundreds of kilometers.

All in all, each industry will have a process of survival of the fittest. Once government subsidies are completely withdrawn, new energy vehicle companies will face the double crisis of overcapacity and declining competitiveness.New energy vehicles are still to be combined with innovative elements such as driverless and smart car networking, and the new concept of packaging Internet cars can compete with traditional cars.